Sunday, November 2, 2008

Offseason Priorities Are Teixeira and A Catcher

Last week, I expressed my skepticism of the rumors that the Red Sox are interested in Mark Teixeira. But there continue to be rumors about the Red Sox heavily pursuing the free agent switch hitter. It's quite possible that these rumors are being circulated with the purpose of driving up Teixeira's price for other teams e.g. the Yankees.

At first glance, the Red Sox offense doesn't appear to need much improvement. They scored the third most runs in baseball last year (845) with significant injuries to David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew. Compare this to their team ERA of 4.01, which ranked 9th in baseball. But this ignores the hitting friendly environment of Fenway Park, where the Red Sox played half of their games.

While Fenway Park was one of the worst home run hitting parks in baseball for the third year in a row, it was the 5th easiest park in which to score a run last year. It was 7.7% easier to score a run in Fenway Park last year than it was in an offensively neutral park, mostly because it was by far the most double friendly park in the majors (58.9% easier to hit a double than an offensively neutral ballpark). The Red Sox scored an incredible 77 more runs at home than they did on the road. Among all major league teams last year, that was the second most extreme difference in home and away runs scored.

A quick look at OPS+ vs. ERA+ confirms that the Red Sox greatest need is offense. Considering park factor, the Red Sox were 8 points above league average in OPS+ and 14 points above average in ERA+. So it makes sense that they'd be interested in the greatest hitter on the free agent market. Teixeira has averaged an OPS+ of 151 the last four seasons. Think Manny Ramirez in 2004 when he hit 43 home runs and drove in 130 runs with the benefit of Fenway Park and a good Red Sox lineup. And you know Teixeira's .400+ OBP the last two years and gold glove defense are giving Epstein a baseball boner.

Once the Red Sox attempt to replace Manny's spot in the order, placing Teixeira in the middle of a lineup which already includes David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay and J.D. Drew, they will turn to their catcher situation. The Red Sox have three options here. They could resign Jason Varitek and stand pat. They could trade a pitcher (Masterson, Buccholz, Bowden) to Texas for Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Gerald Laird. Or the Red Sox could attempt to trade Mike Lowell for Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero who is struggling to get playing time behind Chris Snyder.

Of the three catchers, Gerald Laird is by far the best defensive catcher. He also has a live arm, throwing out 37.8% of baserunners over his career. But he also has the least upside with the bat where he's inconsistent and over aggresive. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has the greatest offensive upside, hitting .274/.370/.455 in 1401 minor league at bats since coming out of high school. At the major league level, he's hit .261/.327/.399 and is still only 23 years old. Montero would provide a backup option, should the Red Sox not sign Varitek or be able to trade for a Texas catcher.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

The City of Brotherly Love

I thought about writing something about the Phillies winning Game 5, but frankly it lost it's luster after it was suspended for the second time. Instead, I'm going to focus on the aftermath of Game 5. Every city has riots after their team wins the World Series, I'm not bashing Philadelphia fans. But last night's riots were especially out of control.

Cars were burned, street signs and lights were vandalized, a fire truck was stolen, store windows smashed in, police officers assaulted, and in the end 76 people were arrested. Of course it had to be 76 people in Philadelphia. But that's about the only humorous part of last night's events.

There's no excuse for the rioting. Granted, the true fans are probably in their warm homes celebrating with friends, or standing outside the ballpark celebrating. It's mostly drunk opportunists that cause the destruction. But a championship is supposed to be a celebration of a city, not an excuse to vandalize one.

Here's some of the footage from last night. It's pretty incredible.









Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Kenshin Kawakami Declares Interest In Sox, Hires Ichiro's Agent

Kenshin Kawakami, the ace of the NPB (Japan's equivalent to the major leagues) champion Chinuchi Dragons, has declared that he'd like to pitch for the Boston Red Sox. And two days ago, he went a step further, hiring American sports agent Tony Attanasio. Attanasio is best known for representing Japanese star Ichiro Suzuki.

Kawakami is Japans highest paid starter, earning $3 million a year. Japanese contracts are largely symbolical, and when the Chinuchi Dragons tried to give Kawakami a paycut after one of the best years of his career in 2007, they more-or-less sealed his fate. He's almost certain to head to the U.S. and cash in on our more expensive contracts.

The Red Sox, along with the Rays have expressed interest in the 33-year-old righty. And at least eight other major league teams had scouts at the Beijing Olympics, in which Kawakami pitched. But would Kawamaki be a good fit for the Red Sox?

Kawakami has a career ERA of 3.22 in 257 starts in Japan. There are concerns that he could be the next Kei Igawa, considering that he's been home run prone in Japan, and he typically throws in the high 80's. And this is a significant concern. Kawakami gave up nearly a home run every 9 innings in Japan, which was more frequent than even Igawa.

However, Kawakami's control is much bette than Igawa's. Over his career in Japan, Kawakami averaged 1.92 walks per 9 innings of work. That's signifcantly less than Igawa's average of 2.86 walks per 9 innings of work. Kawakami had a career WHIP of 1.16 in Japan compared to Igawa's 1.24.

Unlike Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kawakami is known for challenging hitters. His cutter has the reputation of being the best in Japan. He also features a very slow (think knuckleball slow) knee-buckling curve. He also features a forkball and a shuuto which is like a hard slider that breaks down and in to righties.

If Kawakami translates well to the majors, he could provide production similar to Curt Schilling on the end of his career. He has comparable gaudy K/BB ratios (6.30 K/BB in 2007). Both righties threw in their high 80's, and were home run prone. But still, but were known as crafty, big game pitchers.

But I think it's far more likley that Kawakami's production is similar to that of Hiroki Kuroda. If that's the case, he wouldn't have much use in the Red Sox rotation. But some have suggested that he could be used as a swing man, eating innings in the bullpen and providing insurance for the rotation.

Here are Kawakami's career stats
, minus his 2.30 ERA in 117 innings this year. And here's a short video of him pitching. The amount of fastballs he's using is a bit concerning.


Monday, October 27, 2008

Howard Deals Crippling Blow to Rays

Last night when Ryan Howard hit his three run blast in the fourth inning, I got the feeling that the Rays were done. The next inning, when Joe Blanton became the first pitcher in 34 years to hit a home run in the World Series, I knew the Rays were done.

These aren't the same Rays that topped the Red Sox in the ALCS. Noticeably absent are the bats of Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria. Those two driving forces of the Rays offense have yet to get a hit in the World Series.

These Rays look worn out, they look inexperienced, they look sloppy. With their two errors last night, they looked an awful lot like the Devil Rays. Maybe they exhausted themselves getting past the Red Sox, or maybe they ate some bad cheesesteaks. But even for someone rooting for the Phillies, it's painful to watch the Rays play so well all year only to forget to show up to the big dance.

Maybe the real Rays will show up tonight. But with Hamels pitching, I doubt it.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Youkilis Honored, Manny Humanized

MLB handed out the Hank Aaron award today. This award is voted on by fans to honor the best offensive player in each league. National League honors were given to Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez, and American League honors were handed out to none other than Kevin Youkilis.

In February of this year
, I pointed out how Youkilis' bat has improved every year with the Red Sox. This year, we finally saw Youkilis become an elite offensive force. The gold glove first baseman hit .312 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI.

In other news today, Bob Hohler of the Boston Globe reminds us that Manny wasn't all bad. When he wasn't driving in 100 runs or hitting postseason home runs, he had his moments when he was a good teammate. In 2003, he sat out the final game of the season to ensure that Bill Mueller would win the batting title.

Speaking of "The Professional", earlier this month he admitted that he's itching to suit up again. Mueller's 38 and barely has any cartilage left in his knees, but wouldn't it be great to see him in uniform just one more time? Perhaps the Red Sox could offer him a symbolic invitation to Spring Training so he could retire with the Red Sox, like the Yankees did with Jeff Nelson last year.

Free Agent Options - Mark Teixeira

Teixeira would be a welcome addition to any team. It's not too often that a gold glove caliber, switch hitting power threat comes along. And with the health concerns for David Ortiz, J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell, Teixeira would provide the middle of the Red Sox lineup with some stability. For this reason, the Sox are sure to check the price on Teixeira.

Still, I don't think the chances of seeing "Tex" in a Red Sox uniform next year are very good. Before the Red Sox get in on the bidding, they would have to find a way to move Mike Lowell and the $24 million left on his contract over the next two years. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would be able to move Lowell without paying for some of his contract, which would waste money the Red Sox could use on free agents like AJ Burnett and Brian Fuentes.

Once the Red Sox found a suitor for Lowell, they would then have to enter a bidding war with the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles and Braves. Epstein has over payed for players in the past such as J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. But those were moves of necessity. Going into 2007 the Red Sox were without a shortstop and rightfielder. When it comes to luxuries, Epstein has been hesitant to overpay, or give out longterm contracts as was the case with Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon.

Another factor which makes any Teixeira deal unlikely is the prescense of Red Sox prospect Lars Anderson. Anderson is not only the team's top prospect, but also the best first baseman prospect in the game. He hit .316/.436/.526 last year in the pitching friendly environment of Double-A Portland. There's a good chance that he'll be ready to take over the job of everyday first baseman in 2010, at which point the Red Sox will already have Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz under contract. So why would Epstein overpay to add one more corner outfielder to the log jam?

Teixiera's most likely destination next year is probably the Yankees who actually need a first baseman and won't hesitate to overpay for one. While such a signing will be unpleasant for Red Sox fans, it won't do anything to address the Yankees greatest weakness - pitching.

Friday, February 15, 2008

In House Starting Depth

Much has been made of the starters already in the Red Sox rotation. And should one of them go down before a possible Schilling return, Julian Tavarez could temporarily fill a place in the rotation. He pitched the majority of the 2007 season in the rotation, but I don't consider him a quality option for an extended period of time.

There's always the possibility of a trade for someone like Joe Blanton or Ben Sheets. But the Red Sox would be wise to look to their farm system first, where they could find a quality replacement. Going into the season, here are some of the major in house candidates.

Devern Hansack - Hansack is a now 30-year-old prospect that the Red Sox scooped up as an international free agent. Since the Red Sox acquired him prior to the 2006 season, he's had a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.36 K/BB over 272 innings of work at the Double-A and Triple-A level.

Hansack's would be an ideal candidate for a call up because he throws a lot of strikes. He rarely issues walks and is a pretty good strikeout pitcher. Hansack features a low 90's fastball, an above average change up and a plus slider which generates a lot of strikeouts.

Michael Bowden - Bowden is 21-year-old strikeout pitcher who is one of the Red Sox top rated prospects. On the back of a solid Double-A performance last year, Bowden posted mind blowing numbers in Lancaster to begin the season. He posted an ERA of 1.37, a strike out an inning and a WHIP of 0.93 in one of the more hitter friendly parks in professional baseball.

But he struggled at the end of 2007, when he was promoted to Double-A Portland. He actually allowed more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career. His ERA inflated to 4.28 and his WHIP to 1.43. Bowden features a low 90's fastball, a hard curve, a plus slider and an average changeup. Bowden's pitches are considered very advanced for his age and he's a hard worker so I'd expect to see him on the Red Sox soon.

Justin Masterson - Masterson is a 22-year-old sinkerball pitcher who also ranks as one of the Red Sox best prospects. Despite pitching most of last year in the freakishly hitter friendly environment of Lancaster, he managed to hold it together and get a promotion to Double-A. At the Double-A level he then allowed 7.6 hits per 9, stuck out more than a batter an inning and had a WHIP of 1.16.

What makes Masterson unique is that not only is he very effective at inducing ground balls, but he's also a strikeout pitcher. Last year at Double-A, the amount of outs that he got on ground balls was more than three times the amount of outs he get in the air. For reference, Derek Lowe was the only pitcher able to do that at the major league level last year. He features a sinker, a hard sinker (there's a 10 mph difference between the two), a plus slider and an average changeup.

Craig Breslow - Breslow is a 27-year-old lefty. He's spent two years at Triple-A Pawtucket since the Red Sox acquired him in 2006. In 2006 he had an ERA of 2.69, struck out more than 10 batters for every nine innings of work and had a WHIP of 1.09. But in 2007, Breslow struggled a bit. While his other stats remained rather consistent, his hit rate jumped from 6.58 H/9 to 9.17 H/9.

Perhaps the largest knock on Breslow is that he can be inconsistent. At the same time, he's had previous success at the major league level in limited innings. Over 28.1 innings of major league work, he has an ERA of 2.86, has stuck out more than a batter an inning, and has a WHIP of 1.31. He features a high 80's fastball, an average changeup and a plus curveball.

The Sox In A Landslide

MLB.com polled the 30 GM's and asked them who they thought would win the World Series. The Red Sox were by far the favorites, being picked by 17 out of the 30 GM's. The next favorite choice was Detroit, receiving seven votes. Then it went Indians, Mets, Braves.

Of all 30 GM's not one picked the Yankees. I wonder when the last time was that that happened. The most popular World Series prediction was Red Sox against the Mets with 10 votes. Then came the Cubs and Tigers with three votes.

I never thought I'd say this, but I think it's safe to say that the Red Sox are clear favorites.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Spring Officially Begins

Well, Spring Training at least. Hard to believe that pitchers and catchers reporting considering the fact that I just literally spent half an hour rocking my car back and forth to get it out of a parking space. You wouldn't believe how hard it is to get your car to move just a few inches when it's on inch thick ice covered in a foot of melting snow. That was definitely the most time intensive alcohol run that I've ever gone on.

Moving on, so yeah, it was actually sunny today in a part of the country today! I can definitely understand why Papelbon's so happy. I haven't mentioned it yet, but he's by far my favorite Red Sox player. In 2005, Papelbon had his first call up and Johnny Damon left the team. So I took the number eight from Damon's jersey and the number five left over from an old Garciappara jersey and made a Papelbon jersey.

It was a little risky, given the fact that Papelbon only had 34 innings of major league experience, but he looked like a solid prospect to me. And two years later, I couldn't be happier with the choice. It hasn't just been Papelbon's performance which I've been pleased with. You can tell that he has fun. The guy's straight up crazy and doesn't give a shit what people think about it. That's my kind of guy.

Remember in little league when people used to say that the point of playing ball was to have fun? What ever happened to that?

Caught Him!


According to ESPN, the Fed's have a drug test from 2001, in which Bonds tested positive for steroids. It had begun to leak that the perjury case against Bonds wasn't very strong. The belief among many is that Bonds would likely walk. But this obviously changes things.

And for all those Hall of Fame voters who still would have voted for Bonds since he never failed a drug test? They'll have to come up with a different excuse now, or just not vote for him. Bonds failed the drug test just a month after he broke the home run record.

Not only does this look bad for Bonds, but it looks just as bad for Bud Selig. I think it's a pretty clear indicator of what everyone's always suspected. Selig didn't care at all about steroids use because it meant larger profits for Major League Baseball.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Sox Stockpiling Arms For 162 Game War

Last year the Red Sox lead the American League in ERA, WHIP, BAA and Shut Outs. This year they'll be without their number three starter for at least the first half of the season, but that hasn't taken away from the excitement surrounding the team's pitching staff. Schilling's injury pales in comparison to the disappointments of last year's pitching staff.

Not only did Schilling miss a quarter of the season last year, but Matsuzaka had some rookie growing pains, Jon Lester missed most of the season because he was still weak from chemotherapy, and Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz had to be shut down at the end of the year. There was also Hideki Okajima's fatigue, having gone from pitching 54 innings in 2006, to pitching 69 innings last year.

But Hideki Okajima has an answer for his fatigue this year. Via Extra Bases comes the news that Okajima's going to tone down his off the field throwing. The rigorous throwing schedules of Japanese pitchers probably aren't very conducive to a lengthy major league season. Okajima's also been doing some "secret" tampering with his pitches to battle an familiarity hitters may begin to have with him.

Jon Lester is also in camp. As one of the first Red Sox players to arrive this year, he's got to be excited about finally being healthy again. Lester got off to a fast start to his major league career, going 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA over his first eight starts. But he would soon fatigue as symptoms of his cancer. And what was a bright, promising career had to be put on hold for a year. Lester's only 24 though, so he's got plenty of years left on his arm.

Josh Beckett, and Manny Delcarmen are also both in camp, coming off stellar years. Although he wasn't used in as many important spots, Delcarmen's success last year rivaled that of Okajima. His ERA+ was actually better than Okajima's. Delcarmen was good for 11 holds (3rd most on the team) and a save to go with his 1.02 WHIP.

And while Daisuke may have struggled at times last year, his season was overall very solid for a rookie. In fact, he was the first rookie pitcher to record 200 strikeouts since Kerry Wood in 1998. And that was in the National League. You'd have to go back to 1984 to find the last American League rookie who accomplished that feat.

If Matsuzaka replicated his 2007 season he'll be a solid number three starter in the American League East. But I think most are excited about the likelihood of bigger and better things from the Japanese wunderkind.

Pettitte Fazed By Scrutiny

As a New York Yankee, Pettitte's got to be used to media attention. He's just not used to this kind of media attention. It looks like all the talk about Pettitte's cheating and dishonesty has gotten to the pitcher. He's asked to show up to Spring Training a few days late.

I don't think people quite grasp how difficult this must be for Andy. His reputation as an honest, religious, family man taken a serious hit but I doubt that's the most difficult part. Even more painful has got to be the fact that Pettitte is working to ruin the legacy of his friend Roger Clemens. And now it's come out to the media that Pettitte got an HGH shipment from his father, brining Pettitte's own family under the scrutiny of the public.

It will be interesting to see how Pettitte deals with the pressure and distractions. I wonder if he wishes now that he just retired last year.

HGAndy

Andy Pettitte was again caught lying about his use of performance enhancing drugs. He testified in front of congress that he used HGH in 2004 in addition to 2002. This is the third different story that he's told since he was first implicated by Jason Grimsley. At that time he claimed that he never used HGH.

Then when he was implicated in the Mitchell Report and admitted to using HGH in 2002. He claimed it was a one time mistake which he then regretted. But now he's admitted to using HGH two years later. I didn't believe Pettitte's convenient admission of one time use after the Mitchell Report came out, but I'm inclined to believe him now. But Pettitte's lied on multiple occasions about his HGH use so his credibility is more than a little suspect.

Some have speculated that Pettitte's past HGH use could be a distraction this season. He'll have to deal with questions about it all season long and 20 years from now, HGH use will likely be what Pettitte is most remembered for. I'm sure he'll hear it from the Fenway Faithful throughout the season. The Yankees come to Fenway Park first time in early April this year.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Pettite Excused From Steroids Hearing, A-Rod Implicated?

We're now just two days away from public steroids hearings involving Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee. It was rumored earlier that Andy Pettitte was going to back up Brian McNamee's story about Clemens' steroids use. Now, Pettitte has been excused from testifying, which would seem to indicate that Pettitte doesn't want to have to expose Clemens as a liar in public.

Pettitte and Clemens were close friends before the Mitchell Report came out. No one knows what kind of terms they're on right now, but Pettitte is trying to at least salvage what part of the friendship he has left.

In other steroids news, John Rocker has come public with some statements which would be shocking if found to be true. He says that Major League Baseball knew he was using steroids and didn't punish him for it. He goes as far as to say that he failed a drug test and was never punished. That's pretty damning of Bud Selig, who took the Mitchell Report as an opportunity to pat himself on the back.

Even more important could be the news he said about Alex Rodriguez. According to Rocker, Rangers team doctors and doctors from the Player's Association gave him, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez advice on steroids use. This isn't the first time that Alex Rodriguez has been connected to steroids.

Jose Conseco claims to have evidence of A-Rod's steroid use that he's going to release in his new book. Conseco's not the most trustworthy guy in the world, so I'd take that information with a grain of salt. But keep in mind, no one believed Jason Grimsley either when he implicated Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.

It wouldn't be all that surprising if Alex Rodriguez did use steroids. He was certainly around a lot of users and suppliers both with the Rangers and the Yankees. I'm not sure how likely it is that he would ever get caught though if he did use performance enhancing drugs. Major League Baseball testing simply can't keep up with more expensive performance enhancers, specifically designed to go undetected.

Matsuzaka's Ready to Party

Last year Matsuzaka sported a mohawk. Good choice. Sexy, sporty, aerodynamic. Admittedly, it didn't have much on Papelbon's mullet in '06. But apparently, this year's he's taking it up a notch, and Amalie Benjamin has the scoop:

"Matsuzaka, meanwhile, has turned his Mohawk from last season into something of a mullet. It’s definitely a party in the back."

Even more reason to be looking forward to those Spring Training pictures. Thanks to Stephen O’Grady over at wickedclevah.com for the quote. He used it in a story on how much of a crush he has on Amalie Benjamin. I'd have to agree; I love me some Amalie.

Countdown To Spring Training

Well, there are only three more days until Red Sox pitchers and catchers are due in camp. Major leaguers Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima have arrived. It won't be long now until pictures start pouring in.

As someone who goes to school in the North Country, I can't wait. The wind chill is at 7 degrees right now and it's sure to drop below zero once it gets dark out. Even without the excitement of a new season, Florida sounds real good about now.

Straight From the Horse's Mouth

I said earlier that fatigue likely hindered Matsuzaka's performance last year. He was putting up very strong numbers until the last month of the season when it appeared that he tired. Today, Matsuzaka confirmed that fatigue was a factor last year. From the Red Sox Spring Training facility, Matsuzaka had the following to say:

"I think last season I went into it only knowing the pace of the season in Japan so it was certainly a big difference to face a different pace of a season here in the U.S. I think what happened last year was that the peak of my fatigue arrived at a time when I wasn't exactly expecting it to arrive, not at the time that it usually arrives and I think that was part of the difficulty last year."
An increased workload was just one of the numerous difficulties that Matsuzaka faced in his rookie season. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts in 2008.

Examining Wakefield

With Spring Training three days away, I've already taken a look at the Red Sox top two young stars. Now I'll be taking a look at the veteran of the rotation, Tim Wakefield. Wakefield will take the ball for the Red Sox in his fourteenth straight year. In fact, Wakefield's been around so long that he's seen the Red Sox win the division twice.

Over his career with the Red Sox, Wakefield's been the definition of consistency. But at age 41, there may be some questions about his ability to perform. The largest questions surround his health. Even though he pitched 189 innings in 2007, he has had some injury troubles the past two years.

Wakefield's injury troubles have largely been related to his back. In 2006, it was discovered that he had a stress fracture in his rib cage, after he complained of pain in his back. In 2007, Wakefield had a sore back in August but he made all his starts. Later in October, he suffered from some inflammation in his upper back and had to be left off the postseason roster.

Wakefield's success in 2008 will be largely congruent with his health. When he's been healthy, his performance has been fine, even in his old age. No doubt, it's easier to be an aging pitcher when all you have to do is throw a 60-mph knuckleball.

Last year, Tim Wakefield posted an ERA+ of 100. Over the last four year's he's averaged an ERA+ of 103 but he's shown very little variance from year to year. Wakefield may not be the sexiest starter out there, but he's a solid bottom of the rotation guy.

If nothing else, Wakefield will eat up innings and protect the bullpen. He's averaged over six innings a start in each of the last three years. In 2005, the last time he was healthy, he averaged almost seven innings a start. This could be important with the loss of Schilling, who routinely pitched deep into games.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Schilling's Injury Saves the Red Sox Money

See, there's a positive side to everything. Along with Schilling's weight clauses, he also had bonuses based on innings pitched. Schilling was set to make up to $3 million in extra bonuses for each inning he pitched based the 130 innings mark. Now Schilling almost surely won't see any of that money.

Along with the $3 million that could potentially save the Red Sox, Schilling probably won't make the $1 million he'd get for a Cy Young vote either. And it will be interesting to see how he does with those weight clauses. Of course the Red Sox will likely still have to pay the rest of his $8 million base salary. But if Schilling in fact doesn't pitch again, the team may be reimbursed at least some of that money.

Youkilis Gets Pay Day

The Red Sox have agreed to terms with first baseman Kevin Youkilis, and so an arbitration hearing will be avoided. Youkilis will finally cash in, earning $3 million in 2008. This may not seem like all that much when compared to the salaries of star players, but remember, Youkilis made only $424,500 last season.

Youkilis is under arbitration with the Red Sox through 2010. At age 28, he won a Gold Glove at first base last year. And on the offensive side he posted an OPS of 843. That OPS was second best among American League first basemen, behind only Carlos Pena. Youkilis' AVG, home run totals and OPS have gone up every year in the majors, his OPS increasing last year by .033.

Could the Red Sox Look at Sheets For Help?

With the loss of Curt Schilling to injury, the Red Sox are likely entertaining the idea of bringing in outside help. As of now, there's a chance that Schilling could come back in the second half of the season. So I find it unlikely that the Red Sox will look to replace him just yet. But around the trade deadline, the Red Sox should get a better idea of how Schilling's rehab is progressing.

There's also the possibility that another Red Sox starter could go down to injury. Wakefield is 41-years-old and he's had some struggles with injuries the past two years. Josh Beckett has been healthy the last two years, but he's had injury troubles in the past as well.

Should the Red Sox look to add another starter to the team via trade, Sheets would be an ideal candidate. His availability will likely hinge on how competitive the Brewers are next year. But the Brewers contemplated trading Sheets this offseason. He's the highest paid player on the team, and he will be a free agent after the 2008 season.

Sheets has had large struggles with injury but the risk would be relatively low to bring him in for half a season. It's unlikely that the Brewers will bring him back after he's failed to reach the 160 innings mark in any of the last three seasons. And since there's very little left on his contract, a deal for Sheets likely wouldn't require giving up a lot of talent.

The Red Sox talked to the Brewers about Sheets earlier in the offseason, before news of Schilling's injury. I don't see why they wouldn't return to talks should they need starting help once the season begins. The Red Sox could potentially have a lot of spare parts. Coco Crisp, Julian Tavarez, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Craig Hansen or Ryan Kalish could be included in a potential deal for the Brewers ace.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Breaking Down Matsuzaka's Rookie Season

It may have been the biggest story of the Red Sox season. Japanese hero Daisuke Matsuzaka took the plunge into the highest level of competition in professional baseball. As he left his country behind, and undertook this difficult task, his every pitch, every step, and practically every breathe was inspected scrupulously from half way around the world. No one truly knew what to expect.

Looking back on Matsuzaka's rookie year, it can be broken down into three distinct periods. From April through May, Matsuzaka struggled in the majors. Then from June through August, he was one of the elite pitchers in the league. Finally, in September he was completely ineffective. Here's how the three segments of the season break down.

1st Segment (April and May)

72.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.16 H/9, 2.60 BB/9, 8.42 K/9

2nd Segment (June, July and August)

103.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.38 H/9, 3.91 BB/9, 9.20 K/9

3rd Segment (September)

28.1 IP, 7.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 10.17 H/9, 4.45 BB/9, 8.59 K/9

Matsuzka's introduction to the major leagues was a bit shaky. That's not to say he was ineffective, but rather hit or miss. Believe it or not, six out of the 11 starts he made in April and May were actually quality starts. But there were days that he went out there and just didn't have it.

There could be any number of reasons for this consistency. It could be due to the harder competition, nervousness, starting more frequently than he was used to, the different size of the ball in the majors, etc. Whatever the reason, Matsuzaka simply wasn't consistent.

In July, Matsuzaka really turned the corner. He rattled off eight quality starts in a row, and overall from June through August, 69% of his starts were quality starts. He was a dominant ace for the Red Sox in the heart of the season. He was holding hitters to a .222 BAA and unlike April and May, when he had a bad day, he was able to limit the damage.

This was the Matsuzaka the Red Sox thought they were getting. At one point in August, Daisuke had his ERA back down to 3.59. His control wasn't superb but he was so unhittable that men weren't able to get on base against him.

Then came September and things got ugly. It's likely that fatigue caught up to him at this point. Matsuzaka was 20 innings over his innings total from 2006. And unlike Japan where you pitch once every week, Matsuzaka was pitching once every five days. And considering this, the Red Sox weren't very cautious with him.

In the first half the season, Daisuke's innings total had already gotten up to 119.2 and he had thrown 1,977 pitches. To give you some perspective, that's well over half the major league leading 3695 pitches that Carlos Zambrano threw over the course of the entire season.

In 2008, Matsuzaka will be more prepared to pitch every five days. His body will naturally adjust to some degree. And perhaps he can adjust his heavy training regimen accordingly. But it may take Daisuke another year or two to adjust to the new schedule completely. We'll have to wait and see.

What To Look For in Spring Training

Matsuzaka pitched well overall in Spring Training last year, but he did struggle with one thing - his control. Matsuzaka walked 4.57 BB/9 IP in Spring Training last year and it predicted his higher than usual walk rate in 2007. In fact, Matsuzaka's walk ratio was the largest change in his stats from Japan to the U.S. If Matsuzaka exhibits good control in Spring Training, it could be a sign that he will return to his dominant, controlled self in 2008.

Career Patterns: Josh Beckett

With the start of Spring Training only five days away, I'll be taking a look at the Red Sox rotation. To do so, I'll break down the starters one by one and look at how their careers have progressed over the past few years. The logical starting point would seem to be Red Sox ace Josh Beckett, so I'll be examine him first.

Here are Beckett's peripherals over the last four years. Keep in mind that 2004 and 2005 were in the National League and the last two years were in the American League.

2004 - 156.2 IP, 7.87 H/9, 3.10 BB/9, 8.73 K/9, 1.22 WHIP
2005 - 178.2 IP, 7.71 H/9, 2.92 BB/9, 8.36 K/9, 1.18 WHIP
2006 - 204.2 IP, 8.40 H/9, 3.25 BB/9, 6.95 K/9, 1.29 WHIP
2007 - 200.2 IP, 8.48 H/9, 1.79 BB/9, 8.70 K, 1.14 WHIP

The most striking trend in Beckett's numbers is his improving control. With the exception of one year (2006) Beckett's walk rates have gone down like clockwork. From his rookie year in 2002, Beckett's BB/9 rates have been 3.68, 3.55, 3.10, 2.92, 3.25, 1.79. It's easy to forget that Beckett came to the majors at age 21, after skipping college and the Triple-A level completely. So he's done most of his developing at the major league level.

His stellar walk rate last year is likely due to a mechanics adjustment he made in Spring Training. Still, it could be hard to sustain. A slip in his control could mean a slight regression. On the other hand, if Beckett sustains or improves on his walk rate last year, he would likely be a Cy Young caliber pitcher.

The rest of Beckett's peripherals have stayed rather consistent. His hit rates have gone up the past two years, likely as a result of pitching in the American League. It also may have to do with the park he's pitching in, as Fenway Park is conducive to high batting averages. But what's surprising is that his strikeout rates have actually stayed the same, even though he isn't facing a pitcher in American League lineups.

Those who are expecting a large regression in Beckett's performance are likely to be disappointed. Projections for him haven't been very kind, as they have to factor in his sub par 2006 season. But if you consider his 2006 numbers to be outliers (which at this point in his career they appear to be) Beckett has shown steady improvement from his rookie season on.

If you take out his 2006 numbers, Beckett's walk rates, WHIP, K/BB, ground ball to fly ball ratio, and even number of pitches used per inning have all improved rather steadily over his career. Everyone has off years, but I'd say there's reason to believe that Beckett could improve even more over the course of his career.

Truck Day!

Throw in three parts obsession and one part of actual significance, and what do you got? Truck Day. It's more an indicator of New England's obsession with the Red Sox than an actual celebration of sorts, but nonetheless Truck Day is tradition. After all, what better way to release some of Red Sox Nation's fervor than to team's equipment as it's shipped down to Florida?

The Boston Globe's photo gallery of the occasion looked the same as it always does. There's a large semi that pulls up the Fenway Park. Then some people move boxes into the truck. The truck fills up and the large semi pulls away, bound for Florida.

But winters always seem like they take too long. There's no such thing as being content with being World Series Champions. In fact, I'm not sure how many Red Sox fans would be with me, but I'd trade in 2007's Championship to see the 2008 season begin today. It's the means, not the end that is always so entertaining.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Will Matsuzaka Be An Ace In 08?

It's an interesting question, which no doubt will have a large impact on the upcoming Red Sox season. Daisuke Matsuzaka was solid for most of the season last year. Even while adjusting to a new level of competition, and a new country no less, his first half of the season was ace caliber.

Prior to the All-Star break, Matsuzaka pitched 119.2 innings with an ERA of 3.84 and a WHIP of 1.24. He allowed 8.31 H/9 IP, walked only 2.86/9 IP, struck out more than a hitter an inning and kept opponents to a batting average of .242. Those numbers would place him among the elite pitchers of the American League.

As the season progressed, Matsuzaka clearly fatigued. It's hard to underestimate how much of a change it is to go from pitching every week, to pitching every five days. And the Red Sox didn't manage Matsuzaka's innings and pitch counts very carefully. 120 innings is the lot for a pitcher to handle in the first half of a season, and the Red Sox often allowed Matsuzaka's pitch counts to get into the 110's. Matsuzaka could easily handle those pitch counts on six days of rest, but in the majors, he had only 4 days of rest between starts.

As Matsuzaka fatigued, the largest difference in his performance was the amount of walks he gave up. In the second half of the season, Matsuzaka's walk rates increased by 55%. Poor control is something that's rather atypical for the Japanese star. If he wasn't tired, it likely wouldn't have become an issue.

Not only did Matsuzaka have a dramatic increase in his workload but he was also going through the growing pains of his rookie season in the major leagues. The prospects rankings that classified Daisuke as a prospect, ranked him as the top pitching prospect of 2007.

NPB baseball in Japan has been compared to the minor leagues here in the U.S., so Matsuzaka pitching his first year in the majors is hardly any different from pitchers like Homer Bailey or Phil Hughes doing the same. Growing pains should be expected.

There are factors, other than an increased workload which likely made Matszuaka's rookie season especially difficult. Everything from the size of the strike zone, to the texture and density of a baseball is different in the major leagues. Considering this, Matsuzaka's effectiveness in his rookie season is commendable.

As the season wore on, Matsuzaka managed to hold things together even under an increased work load. In mid-August, he got his ERA down below 3.60. It wasn't until September that he became ineffective. And even with his late season struggles, many of his overall numbers remained solid. It wasn't easy for hitters to face Matsuzaka. In fact, his BAA was almost identical to that of Josh Beckett. And overall, Matsuzaka struck out about a batter an inning.

As is the case with many highly regarded pitching prospects, it's likely that Matsuzaka will see an improvement as adjusts to the majors. But just how much of an improvement could be expected? Well, I'm not much of a fan of projections, but they do provide an objective estimate of possible performance.

And most projections predict at least solid number two starter numbers for Matsuzaka. Here's a quick look at them from best to worst.

Bill James - 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 62 BB, 188 K
ZiPS - 196 IP, 3.95 ERA, 60 BB, 177 K

CHONE - 196 IP, 3.99 ERA, 67 BB, 185 K

PECOTA - 204.2 IP, 4.40 ERA, 80 BB, 201 K

If Matsuzaka puts up numbers like those, I wonder consider him an ace, but the Red Sox would be in good shape next year pitching wise. Then there is always the possibility that Matsuzaka adjusts to the American League the same way that Josh Beckett did last year. I think Beckett's adjustment was rather dramatic, but even an adjustment half as dramatic would make Matsuzaka an ace-caliber pitcher.

So will Matsuzaka be an ace in 2008? Only time will tell. But I think it's pretty safe to say he'll probably be a solid number two starter. And if he's not an ace in 2008, there's a good chance he will be soon.

Schilling Out Until All-Star Break

That was quick. There's already been some clarification as to just how much Schilling's injury will affect him next year. According to the Boston Globe, Schilling has elected to go without the surgery and will likely return to action around the All-Star break.

This is good news for the Red Sox. Schilling missed a quarter of the season last year to the same shoulder injury and the team still managed to lead the league in ERA. So it shouldn't be a large blow to the team for him to miss half the season next year. As for how Schilling will perform coming off the injury, that's all speculative at this point. But last year Schilling did his best work of the season, coming off the same injury, to the tune of a 3.34 ERA and a WHIP of 1.06.

It now appears likely that the Red Sox will go into the 2008 season with star prospect Clay Buchholz in their rotation. Buchholz, who will be on an innings cap of about 180, could then get some time off when Schilling returns. And if everything works out to plan, Buchholz will be available for the playoffs in 2008.

Questions About Schilling's Shoulder

The health of Curt Schilling's shoulder has recently become an issue. How much of an issue it is is unclear at this point, however. So far, the facts are as follows:

One doctor (Craig Morgan) has recommended that Schilling have surgery on his shoulder now. And the Red Sox have looked into if it would be possible to void Schilling's contract. But that's all anybody really knows. Anything else at this point is speculation.

There is conflicting news on just how much time Schilling could potentially miss in 2008. Some say that he's questionable to start Spring Training on time, others go as far as to say he's questionable for the entire season. It's likely that any news source knows just how severe Schilling's injury is. And Schilling's pitched hurt in the past, so even with an injury he may still be able to contribute to the rotation.

It's also likely that news sources are blowing Schilling's injury out of proportion. With a lack of interesting news to report on, many newspapers are no doubt desperate for attention. Even so, this will be an important story to follow throughout the season.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, they have arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball ready to take on 180 innings of work. And if worst comes to worst, they could always rely on Julian Tavarez as a starters, as they did for most of last year. But it would be ideal to have a healthy Schilling as he has been an elite pitcher in the division the last two years and has a track record of postseason excellence.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Spring Training Update

Red Sox pitchers and catchers officially report to Spring Training on Valentine's Day in eight days. And Truck Day is this Saturday. As for Red Sox players, it's been reported that Jon Lester is already down in Ft. Meyers. Many other Red Sox players are soon to follow soon.

On February 16th, pitchers and catchers will have their first scheduled workout. February 20th is the officially reporting date for position players. February 22nd is the first team workout. And finally, on February 28th, the Red Sox will hold their first Spring Training game against Boston College.

Manny has recently said that he plans to show up to Spring Training on time this year! When's the last time he did that? It's a contract year, so I'm sure I'm not the only one sensing big things from the future Hall of Famer. I'd bet money on the fact that his numbers will put PECOTA to shame.

Red Sox Likely to Retain Crisp... For Now

There's been a lot of speculation lately as to what the Red Sox plan to do with Crisp. Crisp's agent has come out and said that Crisp would doesn't want to play in a backup role. And previously, free agent outfielder Bobby Kielty said that he would accept a backup role with the Red Sox if they dealt Crisp.

Well, pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in eight days. Coco Crisp doesn't appear to have a starting role on the team and Bobby Kielty has accepted a one-year deal for the Red Sox. So there are some indications that Crisp could be on his way out. But what are the possible landing spots for the center fielder?

The White Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Braves, Padres, Twins, Orioles and Nationals have all been connected to Crisp. Of those teams, the Rangers have acquired Josh Hamilton, the White Sox traded for Nick Swisher, the Twins have acquired Carlos Gomez, the Nationals got Lastings Milledge and the Padres got Jim Edmonds. That would leave the Athletics, Braves, Padres and Orioles as teams possibly in need of a center fielder.

Of those teams, the Athletics probably aren't likely because they're currently rebuilding and Crisp has more than $10 million guaranteed to him over the next two years. As for Baltimore, they've been attempting to acquire Seattle outfield prospect Adam Jones for some time now. The deal, involving Erik Bedard seems inevitable at this point.

So that would leave only the Braves as a team that I'd consider to be likely landing spots for Crisp at this point. The Braves may be planning on using prospect Josh Anderson as their starting center fielder.

So at the moment, there doesn't appear to be much of a market for Crisp. It's likely that the Red Sox will hold on to Crisp going into the season. He would make for a very valuable backup player, providing good defense and speed off the bench. And should Ellsbury fail at the major league level, Crisp would provide some insurance.

Furthermore, as the season progresses so should the market for Crisp. Openings for a center fielder will grow, either due to injury or ineffectiveness. And if Epstein catches a team at the right moment, he could probably flip Crisp for a valuable piece, depending on the team's needs at the trade deadline.

Is the Gig Up For Clemens?

There was speculation a week ago that Roger Clemens' buddy and fellow Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte would tell Congress that Roger Clemens indeed did use performance enhancing drugs. If so, all the attacks on Brian McNamee's integrity would be irrelevant. Pettitte was a good friend of Clemens and would have no reason to lie to investigators.

Now today, McNamee is claiming
that he has physical evidence that Clemens used performance enhancing drugs. The evidence reportedly includes syringes with both traces of performance enhancing drugs and traces of blood which matches the DNA of Clemens.

We'll see just how credible these stories are in seven days, when Clemens, Pettitte and McNamee speak in front of Congress in a public hearing. All three have already spoken to Congress, but to this point they've done it behind closed doors.

The Mitchell Report has elicited some very bitter responses from some sports fans, not all. Many of those bitter fans have been Yankees fans. Upset at the news two of their most important players over the past decade have been caught cheating, many of them dubbed the report Mitchell Report the Red Sox Report. And I can relate to them on some level.

Roger Clemens was my childhood hero. I have his picture up on the wall of my dorm room as I type this. I was very disappointed to learn that he cheated, even if as far as we know he didn't do so when he was on the Red Sox.

But Yankees players being caught cheating is nothing new. What about Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield? Mitchell clearly had nothing to do with them being caught. When star, after star, after star, after star on the Yankees is caught cheating, eventually you have to wonder if the team itself is doing something wrong. The Yankees have long been proud of their "win at all costs" attitude. Perhaps now we're just beginning to learn how far some Yankees players took that to heart.

Rudy! Rudy!

Topps is printing a new card to celebrate the Red Sox 2007 Championship. And they've taken the liberty of adding a 26th man to the roster - Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani, former mayor of New York City, claimed he was a Red Sox fan while campaigning in Massachusetts last year. He can be seen raising his fist in the middle of the pile.

Rudy's Presidential campaign is now over, but perhaps he could have salvaged it with a feel good movie, celebrating his determination. It could go something like this.

"Rudy has always been told that he was too incompetent to be President...
But he is determined to overcome the odds and fulfill his dream...
By posturing around national tragedies and champions."

Bandwagon fans be warned. This is the fate that awaits you.

Is Papelbon the Best Closer in the Game Right Now?

Recently, ESPN writer Jerry Crasnick debated which closer was better, J.J. Putz or Jonathan Papelbon. In the end he decided on Papelbon for a few reasons. First of all, Papelbon's done it in the playoffs, where he's yet to allow a run in 14.2 innings of work. Second of all, Papelbon is four years younger. And I'd like to add a third reason, Papelbon puts up many of his numbers in a much tougher hitting division and a much more hitter-friendly ballpark.

The two closers were clearly the best in the majors last year. But it was Papelbon who was the hardest major league pitcher to hit, leading the majors with a BAA of .146. And it was also Papelbon that lead the majors in K/9, striking out an insane 12.96 hitters per 9 innings of work.

There are also a few knocks on Papelbon. He doesn't pitch as many innings as many closers, although his total innings were about 10 less than the typical closer. And Papelbon hasn't been an elite closer for as long as K-Rod or Joe Nathan. But can you fault Papelbon for what he hasn't been given the chance to do?

He's six years younger than Nathan, and yet he's still outperforming him. He's been a closer in the majors for less than half as many years as K-Rod, yet he's outperforming him as well. I'm not saying he's the next Mariano Rivera (although Mo was never as dominant as Papelbon's been the last two years). But when's the last time a closer had this much success in the hitting heavy American League East? Or the playoffs for that matter?

If Papelbon isn't the best closer in baseball right now, then who is? Don't be shy now.

Red Sox Miss Out On Santana

I have to say, I'm a little disappointed that the Red Sox didn't acquire Johan Santana. The prospect of having Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Clay Buchholz all in the same rotation was mouthwatering. Was Santana truly necessary for the Red Sox? No.

The Red Sox still have what most consider to be the second best rotation in the league. And I'm elated to see Jacoby Ellsbury return to the Red Sox. If nothing more, Ellsbury is a thrilling spark plug. Even if he doesn't turn out to be the next Ichiro, Ellsbury certainly has the OBP ability and blazing speed to be a dangerous leadoff hitter.

But I have to wonder if the Red Sox are overvaluing Jon Lester. The Red Sox reportedly weren't willing to give up Lester when the Twins came to them, asking for the team's best offer. Of course, other players would have been involved in a Santana deal. It will be interesting to reevaluate the trade that wasn't once Lowrie and Masterson have made the majors as well.

There's a chance that Lowrie could replace Lugo as early as next year. Masterson is probably a year or two away from being a major league ready starter but he may find a spot in the Red Sox bullpen as early as next year. Some speculated that he could immediately become the closer for the Twins.