Offseason Priorities Are Teixeira and A Catcher

Last week, I expressed my skepticism of the rumors that the Red Sox are interested in Mark Teixeira. But there continue to be rumors about the Red Sox heavily pursuing the free agent switch hitter. It's quite possible that these rumors are being circulated with the purpose of driving up Teixeira's price for other teams e.g. the Yankees.

At first glance, the Red Sox offense doesn't appear to need much improvement. They scored the third most runs in baseball last year (845) with significant injuries to David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew. Compare this to their team ERA of 4.01, which ranked 9th in baseball. But this ignores the hitting friendly environment of Fenway Park, where the Red Sox played half of their games.

While Fenway Park was one of the worst home run hitting parks in baseball for the third year in a row, it was the 5th easiest park in which to score a run last year. It was 7.7% easier to score a run in Fenway Park last year than it was in an offensively neutral park, mostly because it was by far the most double friendly park in the majors (58.9% easier to hit a double than an offensively neutral ballpark). The Red Sox scored an incredible 77 more runs at home than they did on the road. Among all major league teams last year, that was the second most extreme difference in home and away runs scored.

A quick look at OPS+ vs. ERA+ confirms that the Red Sox greatest need is offense. Considering park factor, the Red Sox were 8 points above league average in OPS+ and 14 points above average in ERA+. So it makes sense that they'd be interested in the greatest hitter on the free agent market. Teixeira has averaged an OPS+ of 151 the last four seasons. Think Manny Ramirez in 2004 when he hit 43 home runs and drove in 130 runs with the benefit of Fenway Park and a good Red Sox lineup. And you know Teixeira's .400+ OBP the last two years and gold glove defense are giving Epstein a baseball boner.

Once the Red Sox attempt to replace Manny's spot in the order, placing Teixeira in the middle of a lineup which already includes David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay and J.D. Drew, they will turn to their catcher situation. The Red Sox have three options here. They could resign Jason Varitek and stand pat. They could trade a pitcher (Masterson, Buccholz, Bowden) to Texas for Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Gerald Laird. Or the Red Sox could attempt to trade Mike Lowell for Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero who is struggling to get playing time behind Chris Snyder.

Of the three catchers, Gerald Laird is by far the best defensive catcher. He also has a live arm, throwing out 37.8% of baserunners over his career. But he also has the least upside with the bat where he's inconsistent and over aggresive. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has the greatest offensive upside, hitting .274/.370/.455 in 1401 minor league at bats since coming out of high school. At the major league level, he's hit .261/.327/.399 and is still only 23 years old. Montero would provide a backup option, should the Red Sox not sign Varitek or be able to trade for a Texas catcher.

Free Agent Options - Mark Teixeira

Teixeira would be a welcome addition to any team. It's not too often that a gold glove caliber, switch hitting power threat comes along. And with the health concerns for David Ortiz, J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell, Teixeira would provide the middle of the Red Sox lineup with some stability. For this reason, the Sox are sure to check the price on Teixeira.

Still, I don't think the chances of seeing "Tex" in a Red Sox uniform next year are very good. Before the Red Sox get in on the bidding, they would have to find a way to move Mike Lowell and the $24 million left on his contract over the next two years. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would be able to move Lowell without paying for some of his contract, which would waste money the Red Sox could use on free agents like AJ Burnett and Brian Fuentes.

Once the Red Sox found a suitor for Lowell, they would then have to enter a bidding war with the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles and Braves. Epstein has over payed for players in the past such as J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. But those were moves of necessity. Going into 2007 the Red Sox were without a shortstop and rightfielder. When it comes to luxuries, Epstein has been hesitant to overpay, or give out longterm contracts as was the case with Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon.

Another factor which makes any Teixeira deal unlikely is the prescense of Red Sox prospect Lars Anderson. Anderson is not only the team's top prospect, but also the best first baseman prospect in the game. He hit .316/.436/.526 last year in the pitching friendly environment of Double-A Portland. There's a good chance that he'll be ready to take over the job of everyday first baseman in 2010, at which point the Red Sox will already have Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz under contract. So why would Epstein overpay to add one more corner outfielder to the log jam?

Teixiera's most likely destination next year is probably the Yankees who actually need a first baseman and won't hesitate to overpay for one. While such a signing will be unpleasant for Red Sox fans, it won't do anything to address the Yankees greatest weakness - pitching.