Sox Stockpiling Arms For 162 Game War

Last year the Red Sox lead the American League in ERA, WHIP, BAA and Shut Outs. This year they'll be without their number three starter for at least the first half of the season, but that hasn't taken away from the excitement surrounding the team's pitching staff. Schilling's injury pales in comparison to the disappointments of last year's pitching staff.

Not only did Schilling miss a quarter of the season last year, but Matsuzaka had some rookie growing pains, Jon Lester missed most of the season because he was still weak from chemotherapy, and Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz had to be shut down at the end of the year. There was also Hideki Okajima's fatigue, having gone from pitching 54 innings in 2006, to pitching 69 innings last year.

But Hideki Okajima has an answer for his fatigue this year. Via Extra Bases comes the news that Okajima's going to tone down his off the field throwing. The rigorous throwing schedules of Japanese pitchers probably aren't very conducive to a lengthy major league season. Okajima's also been doing some "secret" tampering with his pitches to battle an familiarity hitters may begin to have with him.

Jon Lester is also in camp. As one of the first Red Sox players to arrive this year, he's got to be excited about finally being healthy again. Lester got off to a fast start to his major league career, going 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA over his first eight starts. But he would soon fatigue as symptoms of his cancer. And what was a bright, promising career had to be put on hold for a year. Lester's only 24 though, so he's got plenty of years left on his arm.

Josh Beckett, and Manny Delcarmen are also both in camp, coming off stellar years. Although he wasn't used in as many important spots, Delcarmen's success last year rivaled that of Okajima. His ERA+ was actually better than Okajima's. Delcarmen was good for 11 holds (3rd most on the team) and a save to go with his 1.02 WHIP.

And while Daisuke may have struggled at times last year, his season was overall very solid for a rookie. In fact, he was the first rookie pitcher to record 200 strikeouts since Kerry Wood in 1998. And that was in the National League. You'd have to go back to 1984 to find the last American League rookie who accomplished that feat.

If Matsuzaka replicated his 2007 season he'll be a solid number three starter in the American League East. But I think most are excited about the likelihood of bigger and better things from the Japanese wunderkind.

Matsuzaka's Ready to Party

Last year Matsuzaka sported a mohawk. Good choice. Sexy, sporty, aerodynamic. Admittedly, it didn't have much on Papelbon's mullet in '06. But apparently, this year's he's taking it up a notch, and Amalie Benjamin has the scoop:

"Matsuzaka, meanwhile, has turned his Mohawk from last season into something of a mullet. It’s definitely a party in the back."

Even more reason to be looking forward to those Spring Training pictures. Thanks to Stephen O’Grady over at wickedclevah.com for the quote. He used it in a story on how much of a crush he has on Amalie Benjamin. I'd have to agree; I love me some Amalie.

Straight From the Horse's Mouth

I said earlier that fatigue likely hindered Matsuzaka's performance last year. He was putting up very strong numbers until the last month of the season when it appeared that he tired. Today, Matsuzaka confirmed that fatigue was a factor last year. From the Red Sox Spring Training facility, Matsuzaka had the following to say:

"I think last season I went into it only knowing the pace of the season in Japan so it was certainly a big difference to face a different pace of a season here in the U.S. I think what happened last year was that the peak of my fatigue arrived at a time when I wasn't exactly expecting it to arrive, not at the time that it usually arrives and I think that was part of the difficulty last year."

An increased workload was just one of the numerous difficulties that Matsuzaka faced in his rookie season. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts in 2008.

Breaking Down Matsuzaka's Rookie Season

It may have been the biggest story of the Red Sox season. Japanese hero Daisuke Matsuzaka took the plunge into the highest level of competition in professional baseball. As he left his country behind, and undertook this difficult task, his every pitch, every step, and practically every breathe was inspected scrupulously from half way around the world. No one truly knew what to expect.

Looking back on Matsuzaka's rookie year, it can be broken down into three distinct periods. From April through May, Matsuzaka struggled in the majors. Then from June through August, he was one of the elite pitchers in the league. Finally, in September he was completely ineffective. Here's how the three segments of the season break down.

1st Segment (April and May)

72.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.16 H/9, 2.60 BB/9, 8.42 K/9

2nd Segment (June, July and August)

103.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.38 H/9, 3.91 BB/9, 9.20 K/9

3rd Segment (September)

28.1 IP, 7.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 10.17 H/9, 4.45 BB/9, 8.59 K/9

Matsuzka's introduction to the major leagues was a bit shaky. That's not to say he was ineffective, but rather hit or miss. Believe it or not, six out of the 11 starts he made in April and May were actually quality starts. But there were days that he went out there and just didn't have it.

There could be any number of reasons for this consistency. It could be due to the harder competition, nervousness, starting more frequently than he was used to, the different size of the ball in the majors, etc. Whatever the reason, Matsuzaka simply wasn't consistent.

In July, Matsuzaka really turned the corner. He rattled off eight quality starts in a row, and overall from June through August, 69% of his starts were quality starts. He was a dominant ace for the Red Sox in the heart of the season. He was holding hitters to a .222 BAA and unlike April and May, when he had a bad day, he was able to limit the damage.

This was the Matsuzaka the Red Sox thought they were getting. At one point in August, Daisuke had his ERA back down to 3.59. His control wasn't superb but he was so unhittable that men weren't able to get on base against him.

Then came September and things got ugly. It's likely that fatigue caught up to him at this point. Matsuzaka was 20 innings over his innings total from 2006. And unlike Japan where you pitch once every week, Matsuzaka was pitching once every five days. And considering this, the Red Sox weren't very cautious with him.

In the first half the season, Daisuke's innings total had already gotten up to 119.2 and he had thrown 1,977 pitches. To give you some perspective, that's well over half the major league leading 3695 pitches that Carlos Zambrano threw over the course of the entire season.

In 2008, Matsuzaka will be more prepared to pitch every five days. His body will naturally adjust to some degree. And perhaps he can adjust his heavy training regimen accordingly. But it may take Daisuke another year or two to adjust to the new schedule completely. We'll have to wait and see.

What To Look For in Spring Training

Matsuzaka pitched well overall in Spring Training last year, but he did struggle with one thing - his control. Matsuzaka walked 4.57 BB/9 IP in Spring Training last year and it predicted his higher than usual walk rate in 2007. In fact, Matsuzaka's walk ratio was the largest change in his stats from Japan to the U.S. If Matsuzaka exhibits good control in Spring Training, it could be a sign that he will return to his dominant, controlled self in 2008.

Will Matsuzaka Be An Ace In 08?

It's an interesting question, which no doubt will have a large impact on the upcoming Red Sox season. Daisuke Matsuzaka was solid for most of the season last year. Even while adjusting to a new level of competition, and a new country no less, his first half of the season was ace caliber.

Prior to the All-Star break, Matsuzaka pitched 119.2 innings with an ERA of 3.84 and a WHIP of 1.24. He allowed 8.31 H/9 IP, walked only 2.86/9 IP, struck out more than a hitter an inning and kept opponents to a batting average of .242. Those numbers would place him among the elite pitchers of the American League.

As the season progressed, Matsuzaka clearly fatigued. It's hard to underestimate how much of a change it is to go from pitching every week, to pitching every five days. And the Red Sox didn't manage Matsuzaka's innings and pitch counts very carefully. 120 innings is the lot for a pitcher to handle in the first half of a season, and the Red Sox often allowed Matsuzaka's pitch counts to get into the 110's. Matsuzaka could easily handle those pitch counts on six days of rest, but in the majors, he had only 4 days of rest between starts.

As Matsuzaka fatigued, the largest difference in his performance was the amount of walks he gave up. In the second half of the season, Matsuzaka's walk rates increased by 55%. Poor control is something that's rather atypical for the Japanese star. If he wasn't tired, it likely wouldn't have become an issue.

Not only did Matsuzaka have a dramatic increase in his workload but he was also going through the growing pains of his rookie season in the major leagues. The prospects rankings that classified Daisuke as a prospect, ranked him as the top pitching prospect of 2007.

NPB baseball in Japan has been compared to the minor leagues here in the U.S., so Matsuzaka pitching his first year in the majors is hardly any different from pitchers like Homer Bailey or Phil Hughes doing the same. Growing pains should be expected.

There are factors, other than an increased workload which likely made Matszuaka's rookie season especially difficult. Everything from the size of the strike zone, to the texture and density of a baseball is different in the major leagues. Considering this, Matsuzaka's effectiveness in his rookie season is commendable.

As the season wore on, Matsuzaka managed to hold things together even under an increased work load. In mid-August, he got his ERA down below 3.60. It wasn't until September that he became ineffective. And even with his late season struggles, many of his overall numbers remained solid. It wasn't easy for hitters to face Matsuzaka. In fact, his BAA was almost identical to that of Josh Beckett. And overall, Matsuzaka struck out about a batter an inning.

As is the case with many highly regarded pitching prospects, it's likely that Matsuzaka will see an improvement as adjusts to the majors. But just how much of an improvement could be expected? Well, I'm not much of a fan of projections, but they do provide an objective estimate of possible performance.

And most projections predict at least solid number two starter numbers for Matsuzaka. Here's a quick look at them from best to worst.

Bill James - 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 62 BB, 188 K
ZiPS - 196 IP, 3.95 ERA, 60 BB, 177 K
CHONE - 196 IP, 3.99 ERA, 67 BB, 185 K
PECOTA - 204.2 IP, 4.40 ERA, 80 BB, 201 K

If Matsuzaka puts up numbers like those, I wonder consider him an ace, but the Red Sox would be in good shape next year pitching wise. Then there is always the possibility that Matsuzaka adjusts to the American League the same way that Josh Beckett did last year. I think Beckett's adjustment was rather dramatic, but even an adjustment half as dramatic would make Matsuzaka an ace-caliber pitcher.

So will Matsuzaka be an ace in 2008? Only time will tell. But I think it's pretty safe to say he'll probably be a solid number two starter. And if he's not an ace in 2008, there's a good chance he will be soon.